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AT THE ANGEL'S CORNER TONIGHT – THE NAMING OF THE FIRST RECIPIENT OF URGENT AGENDA'S HOPELESS CLOWN AWARD, EVEN HIGHER THAN OUR POMPOUS FOOL AWARD. 

JULY 27,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

SARAH WATCHERS, PLEASE NOTE –  Sarah Palin has accepted an invitation to keynote a Tea Party rally in Iowa on September 3rd, just at the start of the political season.  Some Sarah observers see this as another hint that she'll soon enter the presidential contest.  She must make a decision by the end of September to get her operation going well enough to be competitive in upcoming primaries.

PERRY RISING – A new Gallup Poll reports that Governor Rick Perry of Texas would start his presidential campaign in second place, behind only Mitt Romney, who's been running for president since Theodore Roosevelt's day.  I would expect that Perry would find himself as leader of the pack in short order, as he outdistances Romney by many laps as a campaigner.  Palin was third in the survey, and Giuliani and Bachmann tied for fourth.

BOEHNER ALSO RISING – The speaker, along with Majority Leader Eric Cantor, are starting to get high marks over the way they're whipping their House majority in line behind Boehner's debt proposal.  There had been a brief rebellion by the Tea Party stalwarts, but that seems to be fading in the face of calls by Boehner and others for a practical approach to the debt crisis.  Boehner, whose proposal is not perfect, is correct.  He's following the Reagan mantra that it's better to have 80% of something than 100% of nothing.  If the House passes the Boehner plan, the Dem Senate will be in the position of attempting to vote down the only coherent plan out there.

DEVIL HOT DOGS! – A billboard near the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is warning race goers of the health dangers of demon hot dogs.  There is apparently not much evidence to back up the claim, but we're glad to know the munchies police are on the job.  I suspect, but cannot prove, that the billboard is being sponsored by the Take-All-The-Fun-Out-Of-Life Coalition, a group of people who wear sensible shoes.

July 27, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:36 P.M. ET:

OSLO, Norway (AP) -- Five days after an attacker incensed by Norway's culture of tolerance horrified the world, Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday issued a quiet call of defiance to his countrymen: Make Norway even more open and accepting.  "The Norwegian response to violence is more democracy, more openness and greater political participation," Stoltenberg insisted at a news conference.  His promise in the face of twin attacks that killed 76 people signaled a contrast to the U.S. response after the 9/11 attacks, when Washington gave more leeway to perform wiretaps and to search records.

The fawning dolt who wrote the story, and the equally doltish prime minister, might become familiar with the American notion that the first responsibility of government is the protection of its citizens.  Children died last week in Norway because no security was provided for them.  And we learned today that the sole helicopter available to the police wasn't used...because the crew was on vacation.  Maybe the prime minister is proud of his country's performance.  Perhaps he should express this pride to the grieving parents.  What a disgrace.

EVEN WORSE FOR OBAMA – AT 10:57 A.M. ET:  National Journal, in examining the president's political position, acknowledges that Mr. Obama's national numbers are not good, but asserts that his standing in battleground states that he must win is even worse, leading to thoughts – although it is very early in the campaign – of a Dem debacle: 

...while the national polls are useful in gauging the president’s popularity, the more instructive numbers are those from the battlegrounds.

Those polls are even more ominous for the president: In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.

Take Ohio, a perennial battleground in which Obama has campaigned more than in any other state (outside of the D.C. metropolitan region). Fifty percent of Ohio voters now disapprove of his job performance, compared with 46 percent who approve, according to a Quinnipiac poll conducted from July 12-18.

Among Buckeye State independents, only 40 percent believe that Obama should be reelected, and 42 percent approve of his job performance. Against Romney, Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent—well below the 50 percent comfort zone for an incumbent.

The news gets worse from there. In Michigan, a reliably Democratic state that Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote, an EPIC-MRA poll conducted July 9-11 finds him trailing Romney, 46 percent to 42 percent. Only 39 percent of respondents grade his job performance as “excellent” or good,” with 60 percent saying it is “fair” or “poor.” The state has an unemployment rate well above the national average, and the president’s approval has suffered as a result.

COMMENT:  Other states, like Iowa and Pennsylvania, offer similar grimness.  As the article argues, if Obama can't turn around traditional Democratic states like Michigan, how can he expect to win more closely divided states like Virginia? 

But the piece also has a warning for the GOP, that the nomination of a very polarizing figure for president can turn the race around, and possibly but Barack Obama back in the White House.

Of course, if the economy starts to boom, these early polls will be forgotten history.  However, that appears to be unlikely.  Next year's election could redefine the direction of the country.  And then Obama can become secretary-general of the UN, and announce himself a citizen of the world.   Or has he done that already?

July 27, 2011        Permalink

OBAMA DOWN AMONG MILLENNIALS – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  That's a term you'll hear more and more – the millennials, those voters under 30.  That group has been part of Obama's political base, but, as Michael Barone points out, it is slipping away, something that can have a devastating effect on the president's reelection prospects: 

...white Millennials have been moving away from the Democrats. The Democratic edge in party identification among white Millennials dropped from 7 points in 2008 to 3 points in 2009 to a 1-point Republican edge in 2010 and an 11-point Republican lead in 2011.

There have been shifts of similar magnitude among whites who are low-income, who have no more than a high school education, and who live in the Midwest.

It's not hard to come up with plausible reasons for these changes.  Obama campaigned as the champion of "hope and change" in 2008 and assured crowds of young people that "we are the change we are seeking."

But the change they have seen is anything but hopeful. Youth unemployment rates have been at historic highs. Young people have seen their college degrees produce little in the way of job offers.

They are choosing more often to keep living with their parents. From the Obama Democrats they have gotten only a promise that "children" up to age 26 can stay on mommy and daddy's health insurance plans.

In the wake of the 2008 election, I argued that there was a tension between the way Millennials lived their lives -- creating their own iPod playlists, designing their own Facebook pages -- and the one-size-fits-all, industrial-era welfare-state policies of the Obama Democrats.

Instead of allowing Millennials space in which they can choose their own futures, the Obama Democrats' policies have produced a low-growth economy in which their alternatives are limited and they are forced to make do with what they can scrounge.

COMMENT:   All right, Republicans, this is a group willing to be convinced.  What have you got?  What are you offering?  Obama is losing the millennials, but can get them back.  Remember that he is a superb campaigner.  Republicans historically have been slow to engage anyone who wasn't already a Republican.  You know, dearies, we really don't like these pushy people who aren't in the club.  But Republicans have opportunities that are golden.  I think there are some potential presidential nominees who have the spark that can ignite the millennials...if the party gives them the chance.

July 27, 2011      Permalink

WHILE WE SLEEP – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  We have warned repeatedly here that, while trying to solve our economic woes, we're taking our eye off the foreign-policy ball, especially in regard to Iran.  But the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is clearly worried, and sounding alarms.  From Reuters:

General Martin Dempsey says Tehran's nuclear activities and its attacks against US soldiers in Iraq show "miscalculation of US resolve."

US President Barack Obama's pick to become the top US military officer warned Iran not to underestimate US resolve in responding to attacks on US forces in Iraq by Iranian-backed militia and Tehran's continued nuclear activity .

General Martin Dempsey did not outline potential US responses in a Senate hearing on his nomination to become chairman of the US military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, a post he is expected to assume in October.

But his remarks underscored growing US concern in the wake of the killing of 14 US service members in hostile incidents in June, the highest monthly toll in Iraq in three years.

Asked what his message to Iran would be, Dempsey said: "It would be a gross miscalculation to believe that we will simply allow that to occur without taking serious consideration or reacting to it."

Dempsey appeared to signal his fear that Tehran might go too far, both in its actions in Iraq and with its nuclear program, which the West believes is aimed at making nuclear weapons. Tehran says the program is for peaceful purposes.

In his written response to questions from the Armed Services Committee, Dempsey wrote: "With its nuclear activities and its surrogate activities in southern Iraq, there is a high potential that Iran will make a serious miscalculation of US resolve."

COMMENT:  If you were Iran, looking at the U.S. today, how much resolve would you see?  It took Obama days finally to get to a microphone to denounce the Iranian crackdown on democracy demonstrators in its own streets in 2009.  Iran is rarely mentioned by the administration today.

But Dempsey is right.  Ultimately, if pushed, any American president, including this one, would have to take action.  And yes, there is enormous danger of a miscalculation in Tehran that could lead to a regional conflagration.  The Japanese miscalculated at Pearl Harbor; Al Qaeda miscalculated on 9-11. 

But the president himself must send stronger signals that our economic woes will not lead to a loss of American resolve internationally.  Those signals have not been sent.  On the contrary, Democratic budget proposals contain alarming cuts in defense spending just at a time when foreign threats are increasing, not decreasing. 

July 27, 2011       Permalink

THE KEY WORD IS "DOWNGRADE" – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  That's the word we're hearing more and more, even more than "default."  Even if the geniuses in Washington avoid a national default in the coming debt negotiations, America could still face a "downgrade."  It sends a chill up the spine of D.C. politicians, especially in the White House, because it's 1) a national humiliation, and 2) easily understood.  From The Politico:

It’s not the default that strikes the most fear in the White House and Congress these days. It’s the downgrade.

Even Republican leaders say the country can’t go into default, and they’ll do everything possible to raise the debt limit by Aug. 2.

But what really haunts the administration is the very real prospect, stoked two weeks ago by Standard & Poor’s, that Barack Obama could go down in history as the president who presided over his country’s loss of its gold-plated, triple-A bond rating.

Obama could win and lose at the same time, striking a deal to avoid default but failing to pass muster on the substance of that deal with credit agencies, which could go ahead and downgrade the rating anyway.

Financial analysts say such a move would hit Americans with more than $100 billion a year in higher borrowing costs, but it’s not just that. It would be a psychic blow to a nation that already looks over its shoulder at rising economic powers like China and wonders, what’s gone wrong? And it would give the president’s Republican rivals a ready-made line of attack that he’s dragging the country in the wrong direction.

It’s what drives his Treasury Department into cajoling and pleading with the bond ratings agencies to be patient, like a harried coach working the refs from the sidelines.

It’s a factor influencing Obama’s rejection of a short-term deal: The administration believes the ratings agencies won’t like it.

COMMENT:  From what we've seen in sweeping the internet and news outlets, more and more commentators believe we will be downgraded.  As the story notes, this could produce real psychological damage.  This country has the self-image as a kind of financial Gibraltar, with the highest ratings.

If we do get downgraded, one sad byproduct will probably be the perception in minority communities that race is involved, that the nation's first black president is being slapped down by the old white boy's financial network.  This would be a tragic development, but I'm afraid it will happen.

July 27, 2011     Permalink

JULY 26,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

CONSOLATION PRIZE – You may remember Goodwin Liu, the Berkeley law professor nominated by President Obama to the liberal Ninth Circuit, based in California.  Liu had to withdraw his name in face of determined Republican opposition based largely on his leftist interpretation of the Constitution.  Well, not to worry.  California Governor Jerry Brown has just appointed Liu to the state's highest court, where he should feel right at home.  It's considered one of the most liberal courts in the country.  In liberal politics, there's always a second chance.  And a third.  And a fourth.

FORD EJECTS THE CD – Ford Motor Company is doing away with CD players in its cars.  Eventually, Ford owners will access music through the internet, presumably meaning a driver would operate some dashboard controls to download the desired selection.  That's just what we need, trying to access the internet at 65 mph.  There is no word on whether Ford is supplying life insurance to go along with this technological advance.

KOCH DOES A KOCH – New York's former, and irascible, Mayor Ed Koch, who became famous as a reformer in the Democratic Party, has endorsed a Republican to replace disgraced Congressman Anthony Wiener.  Koch made it clear that he was sending a message to President Obama over Obama's Mideast policies and overall stewardship.  Koch supported Obama in 2008, but don't be shocked if the popular ex-mayor goes rogue in 2012.  While some Dems may abandon Obama because he viewed as insufficiently "progressive" (whatever that means), more moderate Democrats may drift over to the other side in disillusionment at the administration's train wreck.

WAPO GETS IT RIGHT – We've commented before that the editorial page of the Washington Post is far more reasoned and mature than is the same page at The New York Times.  Both are liberal, but only one is sane.  The Washington Post has once again proved its maturity by editorializing that the only person responsible for the Norway massacre is the person who carried it out.  This comes after days of truly tasteless comments by the left-wing media, suggesting that the killer was influenced by a number of conservative writers and critics of multiculturalism, and that they deserve part of the blame.  That is rubbish, of course.  The murderer's manifesto even references Mark Twain, that well-known enabler of terrorists.  The WaPo editorial, well worth reading, is here. 

July 26, 2011       Permalink

NOT QUITE PARADISE – AT 9:12 A.M. ET:  One of the more revolting spectacles in the aftermath of last week's terror attack in Norway is the way some Norwegian leaders continue their strutting, assuring us of Norway's social superiority and general wonderfulness. 

What is coming out, though, is a portrait of an almost adolescent nation, living its myths, and whose police were frightfully unprepared on Friday to handle a serious emergency.  Germany's Spiegel online reports:

Since Friday's twin attacks, Norwegian politicians have repeatedly stressed that Norway will remain an open society, that one cannot allow the man behind them to chip away at this important and fundamental value of Norwegian society.

The sluggish and confusing way in which the police have been releasing information on the tragedy may not quite live up to this ideal of transparency. But it does show just how much the attacks have unsettled Norway, how the country is having trouble finding a balance between transparency and trust, on the one hand, and appropriate security measures and caution, on the other -- caution that is now likely only to grow after Breivik claimed in court on Monday that his network included two additional cells.

Norwegian security forces were clearly not prepared to respond to these kinds of terror attacks. Indeed, it took them roughly 60 minutes after the initial reports of shooting to make their way to the island that had become the scene of a horrific massacre of youths attending a summer camp organized by the ruling Labor Party.

Since the only helicopter available for the country's elite anti-terrorism unit was parked at Rygge airport, roughly 50 kilometers (31 miles) south of its base in Oslo, its members decided to travel to the island by car. When they finally arrived at the pier across from the island, they had no boat to make the crossing. Instead, it took them 16 minutes to commandeer private boats and cross over to the island.

It's always the same story in these countries that try to establish a socialist paradise.  Ultimately, their own people – in this case children – pay the price. 

The lack of security precautions in Oslo had long raised eyebrows abroad. Former government workers tell SPIEGEL ONLINE that, in the past, foreign politicians have voiced concerns about the level of security they found when making official visits to the prime minister's offices. They said they found the entire area far too vulnerable to attack.

"The price of our openness cannot be that government workers have to fear for their lives while at work," says Elisabeth Udgaard, a 32-year-old employee of a Norwegian ministry. "Openness and safety are not mutually exclusive," she added. "Having no protection is not open; it's naïve. Norway finally has to face up to this reality."

Very well said.  The responsibilities of adults are sometimes difficult. 

July 26, 2011     Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:

Rome: For decades Palermo's Ucciardone prison has been known to its inmates as "The Grand Hotel" – a place where not even a custodial sentence could prevent well-connected mafiosi from enjoying the pleasures of a fine meal and a well-cut suit.  One mobster, Michele Catalano, was even able to hold a champagne and lobster birthday banquet in the gym of the Sicilian jail, while a fellow godfather arranged a formal wedding for his daughter in the prison chapel.  But the new governor, Rita Barbera, is calling an end to the good times, starting with a ban on several designer labels such as Prada, Gucci, Valentino, Versace, Louis Vuitton and Armani.

Good idea.  Now let's apply it to Congress.  And let's certainly apply it to the UN.

MORE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS, WITH FOREIGN-POLICY IMPLICATIONS – AT 8:39 A.M. ET:  In his farewell address to the nation, Dwight D. Eisenhower famously warned about the "industrial-military complex."  His statement, as we've noted here before, has usually been taken out of context.  He was actually speaking about the need for an industrial-military complex, but cautioned that it had dangers.

Well, unless you believe in the rantings of the fringe left, the industrial-military complex hasn't taken over America.  But the complex is in danger of being weakened, which means a weakened America and an America less prepared for current and future dangers.  From WaPo: 

A job with a defense contractor was once a prized — and stable — position in the Washington region.

But top Pentagon officials have called on defense contractors to trim their costs and have made cuts to some large programs. The push for efficiency has rippled through the defense industry, prompting some firms to cut back their workforce and generating concerns that some of the industry’s most skilled employees and prospects will reconsider their career options.

Loss of those skills can create a defense tragedy down the line.  It is a myth that those industrial skills are automatically passed on from generation to generation. 

“The apprehension in the sector is generalized right now — nobody really feels like they’re safe,” said Loren Thompson, a defense industry consultant at the Lexington Institute. “As a consequence, people across the industry are examining their options and considering what they might do instead of their current jobs.”

Bethesda-based Lockheed Martin last week announced “voluntary layoffs,” offering severance packages to 6,500 employees, about 2,000 of whom are based in the Washington region. That followed more cuts last month when the defense giant announced it would lay off about 1,500 employees in its aeronautics business and 1,200 in its space systems business. This year, Falls Church-based General Dynamics said it would lay off 112 employees, or about one-third of its Woodbridge workforce, after a Marine Corps vehicle program was canceled.

And...

At the same time that some firms are cutting back, the industry overall continues to struggle to attract enough highly skilled workers with security clearances. Engineers, scientists and software designers exiting college may choose to avoid a career in the defense industry as the sector continues to cut back, said Marion C. Blakey, president and chief executive of the Aerospace Industries Association, an industry group.

“If you begin to see young talent with technical degrees going elsewhere, it’s a genuine problem for our country from a national security standpoint and an economic standpoint,” she said.

COMMENT:  For many decades the United States, more than any other nation, learned well the lessons of World War II, and our unpreparedness for that conflict.  Now, as memories fade and the World War II generation disappears, we are forgetting.  My fear is that we will be reminded, and that it will be a most unpleasant reminder.

July 26, 2011       Permalink

WU OUT FOR INAPPROPRIATE WOOING – AT 8:24 A.M. ET:  The latest Democratic member of Congress to be accused of improper sexual advances, not to mention some other bizarre behavior, has decided to get out of town before things get worse.

WASHINGTON (AP) - Rep. David Wu, facing an accusation of an unwanted sexual encounter with an 18-year-old woman and a request for an investigation by the House Ethics Committee, will not seek re-election next year and was pondering whether he would complete his term, a spokesman for the Oregon Democrat said Monday.

In a letter sent Monday, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi requested the Ethics Committee investigation. The Oregonian, Wu's hometown newspaper, had reported that a California woman left a voicemail at Wu's office accusing him of an unwanted sexual encounter. Wu, 56, has said the encounter was consensual.

A few hours after the investigation request, Wu spokesman Erik Dorey told The Associated Press: "He's still determining his political future, but he will not run for re-election. He's fully focused on fulfilling his elected duties and serving his constituents to the best of his duties here in the House."

Wu tried to keep a low profile Monday as lawmakers returned to work and focused their attention on the debate over raising the debt ceiling. Dorey, his communications director, noted that Wu took part in House votes.

Wu, in his seventh term, was guaranteed a stiff primary challenge after seven staffers resigned in January because of unusual behavior that included sending a photo of himself in a tiger costume to a staff member and an angry public speech. Wu attributed those actions to a period of mental health challenges that began in 2008 as marital issues led to separation from his wife.

Those problems paled compared to the potential fallout from the encounter with the young California woman. Citing anonymous sources, The Oregonian reported that Wu told senior aides that the sexual encounter was consensual. The Portland paper reported Facebook notes indicated she graduated from high school in 2010 and that she registered to vote in California last August.

COMMENT:  So off to the land of Weiner goes Wu.  Is there something about the letter "W" that bums Democrats?  Ultra-lib Democratic Congressman Lynn Woolsey, in a safe district, recently announced she was leaving Congress.  Expect some Democrats to protest the letter "W" as a human rights violation.

July 26, 2011       Permalink

WARNING FOR BOTH PARTIES – AT 8:08 A.M. ET:  "A plague on both your houses" seems to be the message of the American people in a new Washington Post/ABC poll.  As we traditionally point out, a poll is a snapshot in time, or even less than that, and results will vary as we approach the 2012 election.

But we note that rising dissatisfaction with President Obama is not being matched by any great enthusiasm for the Republican Party, as a party.  The story: 

More than a third of Americans now believe that President Obama’s policies are hurting the economy, and confidence in his ability to create jobs is sharply eroding among his base, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

But Americans’ discontent does not stop there. The survey also found that Americans harbor negative feelings toward congressional Republicans. Roughly as many people blame Republican policies for the poor economy as they do Obama. But 65 percent disapprove of the GOP’s handling of jobs, compared to 52 percent for the president.

The dissatisfaction is fueled by the fact that many Americans continue to see little relief from the pain of a recession that technically ended two years ago. Ninety percent of those surveyed said the economy is not doing well, and four out of five report that jobs are difficult to find. In interviews, several people said that they feel abandoned by both parties, particularly as debates over the debt ceiling gridlock Washington.

COMMENT:  If there's a lesson here, it's that Republican success in 2012 must be based on the choice of a solid, stirring candidate who will not run simply as "the Republican."  Michele Bachmann, whose political acumen should not be underestimated, constantly distances herself from the Republican establishment.  I think you'll see that with Rick Perry as well, once he enters the fray. 

Please remember that Ronald Reagan was not overwhelmingly popular with establishment Republicans, who tried to burden him with former President Gerald Ford as the vice presidential candidate in 1980.  Some establishment types boosted the idea of a "co-presidency" because they didn't trust Reagan, and had bought into the fiction that he was a loose cannon. 

One problem with Romney is that he comes off as the consummate establishment guy, right down to the preppy clothing and neat haircut.  I would look for a GOP primary battle in which the more astute candidates will try to stress their independence.  And they'd be right.

July 26, 2011     Permalink